Scenario planning

What it is?

Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that organisations can use to make flexible long-term plans.

How it works?

A group of analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as in environmental, demographics, geography, military, political, and science issues, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic and political trends which are considered key driving forces of the game.

So it isn't real. It is make-believe, even though scenario planning can include anticipatory thinking elements that can be difficult to formalise, such as subjective experiences during its sessions, shifts in values, new regulations, guides and/or sudden insights for innovative and sustainable products.

If it isn't real then why play these games?

Because it is like kata's in Martial Arts. By using our imagination we imagine the worst and best cases and come better prepared for either, and in general for "facing" that which we don't like to see or hear or tend to be in denial about. So it is risk management of the very best kind. Of course we dare be prepared to be surprised! We have our own well trained captains aboard!

The whole idea is not to manipulate the future, yet it might, be it in positive ways. The idea is to practice how we deal with what might happen, and raise our awareness to see it coming in time when it does, whatever the "it" is. We also reduce our fears, and increase our self-confidence, both essential ingredients for being action-able if and when we believe it is needed.